MARSHALL — An exit poll conducted by political science students at Southwest Minnesota State University during projected Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Jensen to carry Lyon County by 15-20 points.

Jensen’s projected lead in Lyon County this year wasn’t as strong as Donald Trump’s was in 2020. That could possibly be because more Democratic voters participated in the exit poll, students said. However, they said the poll found consistent voter patterns within demographic groups such as age and education.

SMSU students collected a total of 363 exit poll surveys in Lyon County. That total included 300 responses from six polling locations on Election Day. Responses were gathered at locations in Marshall, Cottonwood, Tracy and Minneota, said SMSU political science student Sam Lund. Students also gathered 63 surveys at the Lyon County courthouse during the early voting period, between Oct. 28 and Nov. 5.

The exit polls’ results suggested that Jensen would carry Lyon County by 15 to 20 points. In comparison, in 2020, Trump won Lyon County by 26%. It was possible that the 2022 exit poll oversampled Democratic voters, students said.

The poll results showed some interesting patterns among demographic groups, Lund said. Poll results said Jensen drew his strongest support from men, regular church-goers, homeowners and people making between $50,000 and $100,000 per year.

In other races, Rep. Michelle Fischbach won more than 60% of the local vote, and state legislators Gary Dahms and Chris Swedzinski also had victories, poll results said.

The exit poll showed more ticket-splitting among Lyon County voters this year than in recent elections. In the races for Minnesota governor and attorney general, 10% of Tim Walz voters crossed party lines to support Republican attorney general candidate Jim Schultz. Among Jensen supporters, 19% crossed party lines to support Keith Ellison in the attorney general race.

The exit poll results showed that Lyon County voters were polarized in their outlook on the country’s condition. A majority of Jensen supporters – 90% — said they thought the country was on the wrong track. Meanwhile, 41% of Walz supporters said they thought the country was on the right track, 31% were not sure and 28% said they thought the country was on the wrong track.

Students said those numbers represented the widest division ever recorded by the Lyon County exit poll on any question going back to 1996.

“It is interesting to see these kinds of changes over time,” Lund said.

The poll results showed that area residents are looking for some new faces in the 2024 presidential election. When asked what scenario they’d most like to see, 53% of poll respondents said they hoped neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump would run. Both candidates still had supporters, however – 27% of respondents most wanted Trump to run again, and 19% wanted Biden to run again.