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MPS plans for growth

While enrollment numbers may have taken a dip this year, Marshall school officials say more growth is projected

Photo by Deb Gau Students at Marshall Middle School crowd out the doors at the end of a Friday school day. As of the end of December, enrollment estimates for Marshall Public Schools included about 746 students in grades 5-8.

MARSHALL — It’s a pattern not all school districts get to see. Enrollment has been growing at MPS for a decade, said Marshall Public Schools Superintendent Scott Monson.

“Last year was our 10th consecutive year of growth,” Monson said. “I feel fortunate we get to talk about increasing enrollment.”

Going by a December estimate, MPS’ enrollment may be down from the previous year for the first time in that decade. However, Monson said the district still projects enrollment growth over the next four school years.

By the end of December, Marshall Public Schools had a total enrollment of about 2,501 students in pre-K through 12th grade. That number was actually down by eight students from the district’s average daily membership for the 2018-19 school year. However, Monson said, “That number can fluctuate every month.” MPS won’t know the district’s actual average daily membership for the current school year until June, he said.

Average daily membership is calculated each year by the Minnesota Department of Education, based on data submitted by school districts, Monson said. The average can be affected by how much of the school year a student attends in Marshall, and doesn’t always match up with the exact number of students enrolled by the end of the year, he said.

The MPS student count as of December 20 included an estimated 889 students in pre-K through fourth grade, 746 students in fifth through eighth grade, and 866 students in ninth through 12th grade.

The 2019-20 enrollment estimate was a slight dip after 10 straight years of enrollment increases. MPS went from an average daily membership of about 2,135 students in the 2009-10 school year, to 2,509 students in the 2018-19 school year. During that decade, the rate of growth fluctuated from year to year, with a few school years only seeing enrollment increases of fewer than 10 students. The sharpest rate of growth came in between the 2014-15 and the 2015-16 school years. Average daily membership increased by about 142 students in the 2015-16 school year.

While the current school year’s enrollment numbers might be down a bit, Monson said MPS’ enrollment is projected to continue growing over the next four years. By the 2023-24 school year, enrollment is projected to be about 2,616 students.

Monson said enrollment projections are important, because they affect planning for the school district — for example, in deciding how many sections of students are needed at a school. MPS is currently in the middle of a building project that will partly address space issues at district schools. A new elementary school being planned along Southview Drive is designed to hold around 600 students in grades 2-4. Monson said the school will also be designed so that it could be expanded in the future, if needed.

“We still know we’re going to have space challenges at the middle school and the high school,” he said. However, the message MPS heard “loud and clear” from voters in the district was that a building project would have to have a price tag of under $30 million.

Monson said he keeps track of MPS enrollment averages to help estimate changes, and the district also subscribes to a service from SchoolFinances.com for enrollment projections. The additional projections can help figure out discrepancies, Monson said.

“The enrollment projections are part science, part art,” Monson said. “They’ve been pretty accurate so far.”

School enrollment is affected by factors like the population in the school district. And that in turn is influenced by factors like the availability of jobs, housing and child care, Monson said. In that sense, Marshall’s being a regional center has had an impact on school enrollments.

“We’re fortunate that we have that,” Monson said.

Besides being influenced by population changes in the community, Monson said MPS’ enrollment numbers change if students open-enroll into the district. A lot of fluctuation also happens around ninth grade, when students from school districts like Lynd or local parochial schools go on to attend Marshall High School.

“Really the biggest change is (the period) from sixth grade to 10th grade,” Monson said.

While MPS has seen an increase in students open-enrolled from other districts, Monson said they’re not the main reason for enrollment increases in Marshall.

“Our enrollment growth has been driven primarily by children and families living in the Marshall Public School district,” Monson said. Looking to the future, he said the district will also need to look at the affect that online school options are having on enrollment.

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