Photo by Jake McNeill: Southwest Minnesota State University sophomore tight end Brye Hardel celebrates after a play during the Mustangs’ football game against Bemidji State University on Sept. 12 at Schwan Regional Event Center in Marshall.

MARSHALL — The road isn’t getting any easier for the Southwest Minnesota State football team. One week after suffering a 49-10 loss to Wayne State in Nebraska and two weeks after losing to the No. 9 Bemidji State Beavers in Marshall, the Mustangs are hosting another ranked opponent in No. 23 Minnesota Duluth on Saturday.

Historically speaking, SMSU has struggled against ranked opponents. The Mustangs have only won one of their 29 games against top 25 teams and are without a win since 2016. Still, the team isn’t without hope; SMSU’s last win came against Minnesota Duluth, then ranked No. 19, in a 42-38 shootout in Marshall. The Mustangs have not topped the Bulldogs since. 

UMD has gotten off to a hot start this season, sitting at 3-0 with two of its three losses coming by 20 or more points. The exception was last week’s win over Sioux Falls in which the Bulldogs held on for a 42-34 win despite being outscored 20-7 in the fourth quarter.

SMSU, however, has had its ups and downs. The Mustangs started on a high note with a 28-23 win over Minot State before dropping their next two games against Bemidji State and Wayne State by 20 or more points.

The key factor for the Mustangs’ ability to pull off the upset is going to be competitive in the turnover battle. SMSU has not forced a turnover in its last three games. In the one game it did force a turnover — a pair of fumble recoveries in its 28-23 win over Minot State to start the season — SMSU still finished the game with the turnover battle tied after coughing up the ball twice on interceptions. 

Minnesota Duluth, on the other hand, has done the exact opposite. The Bulldogs have fumbled three times on the season but have only thrown one interception so far. Defensively, they’ve come down with four interceptions — one fewer than the Mustangs have thrown — and a fumble recovery. While it may not seem like a lot, the fact that the Bulldogs have averaged more than one fewer turnover per game than the Mustangs could be a deciding factor, especially when they’ve done so while forcing more turnovers defensively.

The good news for the Mustangs is that the Bulldogs aren’t a team that airs the ball out often to get ahead quick, averaging just 167 passing yards per game. The bad news is that their rushing attack has been unstoppable, averaging 284 yards per game on the ground. 

Leading the charge for the Bulldogs has been Kyle Walljasper. The sophomore quarterback has run for 399 of UMD’s 891 yards, as well as eight touchdowns. In addition to their quarterback, Jaylen McKnight and Thomas Chamere have rushed for 100 and 98 yards respectively and each found the endzone once.

That being said, SMSU’s rushing defense has been better than its passing so far. The Mustangs have allowed 4.5 yards per rush attempt compared to 8.7 per pass attempt. SMSU opponents have scored more on the ground than in the air (nine touchdowns compared to five) but the play efficiency shows that they’ve been a team that’s more threatened by the pass than the run. Stopping Walljasper from running is unrealistic but slowing him down or forcing him to throw the ball will be paramount if the Mustangs want a chance to complete the upset. 

Part of this battle is going to be on the Mustangs’ pass rushers. SMSU is yet to sack an opposing quarterback this year. They’ve also tackled opponents in the backfield just eight times for a total of 16 lost yards. The more time Walljasper has to keep the ball in his hands, the worse the Mustangs are for it. 

SMSU and Minnesota Duluth last met in Duluth last year. The Mustangs were tied with the Bulldogs in the fourth quarter at 21-21, but a 43-yard touchdown from Logan Graetz to Noah Skifton gave the Bulldogs the edge in their 31-21 win.

Southwest Minnesota State (1-2) will look to stage the upset on Saturday at Mattke Field at 1 p.m.