Minnesota’s latest state economic forecast shows the state’s whopper of a surplus is getting even more whopping — instead of $7.7 billion, it could be as much as $9.25 billion.

But at this point the state budget forecast is, as the old saying goes, counting chickens before the eggs hatch. The forecast that came out Monday is based on a lot of projections and assumptions that could change drastically in the months ahead as the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spreads throughout the world.

Economic sanctions designed to punish Russia could raise inflation rates and fuel prices in the rest of the world, and could affect the corporate profits and consumer spending that are growing the state’s budget surplus forecast.

We doubt that the state’s surplus is going to shrink away to nothing, but legislators and governor should be careful about how much they think they will have to spend as the legislative session plays out.

Republicans, for instance, are proposing a massive tax cut that would cost some $8.5 billion over the next three years, using up $3.5 from the $7.7 billion surplus, and cut into the state’s budget over the next two years.

At this point, that could be spending money we don’t yet have. Forecasts are one thing, but money in the bank is another.