A week ago Gov. Tim Walz said the stay-at-home order is working. But during that same COVID-19 briefing, he extended the order to Mary 4. That decision was met with disappointment from a variety of sectors in the state.

The next day, the top Republican in the Minnesota Legislature came out against the governor’s decision. Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka sent out a tweet: “We have to get on with our lives.”

Gazelka’s outburst of defiance is understandable. His frustration is felt throughout rural Minnesota. It currently reverberates right down Main Street Marshall. Restaurants, bars and small retail shops once full of activity, are now shuttered — owners and employees fretting about their futures.

Meanwhile, just a day before the governor’s extension order, the Marshall Independent participated in a conference call with Avera Marshall officials. They shared a concern of a projected surge in positive COVID-19 cases flooding their facilities not only in Marshall, but in surrounding communities.

“The normal system is just not set up to handle a pandemic of this magnitude,” Dr. Curtis Louwagie told an Independent reporter after the conference call.

For weeks staff and administrators at Avera have been working to prepare for COVID-19. They all shared the belief that weeks of staying home has worked and has bought them time to train the medical personnel, build up supplies and devise plans.

Avera Marshall CEO Mary Maertens assured us the threat is real and they are planning for the worst case scenario. She told us that there are different medical models that have projected a surge in COVID-19 cases. However, there is a wild card in all this. Because these models all have different results, it’s not certain when or if the surge will hit southwest Minnesota.

And that’s the dilemma our governor, and other governors throughout the nation, face. While the risk is more intense for highly densely populated cities like New York City and New Orleans, the risk is still high for rural America. Health systems in the U.S. are just not built for pandemics. The chance of a medical facility in rural Minnesota being over runned by COVID-19 patients is a frightening proposition. Not just for a hospital’s CEO, but for the nurses and doctors who will be on the front lines putting their health — and the health of their families — on the line.

Presently, the COVID numbers are fairly low in southwest Minnesota. As of today, there are five confirmed cases in Lyon County, three in Yellow Medicine County and two in Lincoln County. The lone death in southwest Minnesota is a Brown County resident. But without more aggressive testing, we just don’t know who else is out there carrying the virus. They could be walking and shopping in our grocery stores, they could be co-workers.

That’s the wild card.

In Tuesday’s briefing, Walz echoed everybody’s frustration of wanting to get back out working and opening up our restaurants and churches. He said he’s tired of sheltering in place too.

But like many other governors, Walz stresses we have to transition back to normal times in a smart way. Because throwing caution to the wind and opening up too much too soon may lead to severe consequences. In fact, probably set the state, the region, back to square one.

And nobody wants that.