Americans aren’t complaining that their 401K balances are decidedly to the positive in the last nine years. Nor should they. We all deserve a little good news.

But headlines that by the end of the day today, without a calamity, the stock market will set a record for the longest bull market should be considered with skepticism. The bull market started in March 2009 and has steadily moved forward with few significant setbacks.

But a closer look at the market’s success suggest some one-time, non-market factors supported those stock prices.

For several years after the 2008 recession, the Federal Reserve Board engaged in what was called “quantitative easing” — a strategy under which the central bank bought government securities, thereby lowering their price. This encouraged investors to buy stocks instead. It also lowered interest rates, making business borrowing cheaper and increased the money supply, making loans more available.

But that came at a price. Buying all those securities boosted Fed assets from $900 billion in 2009 to about $4.5 trillion, even though it discontinued buying securities in 2014. The central bank quadrupled its assets with securities born of a shaky economy. That’s a risk.

Let’s not forget about the major bailouts in 2008 of automakers and financial institutions, industries that are drivers of the American economy.

From 2009 to 2013, the U.S. government purchased $81 billion in stock from General Motors, Chrysler and GMAC, the financing arm of GM. When the government sold the stock, its total loss was $10 billion. But in the overall Troubled Asset Relief Program, which included stock buys, loans and other assistance to stave off major bankruptcies, the government invested $422 billion and recovered about $437 billion.

It’s safe to say this bull market was supported by the U.S. government. The longevity of the current bull market may be unprecedented because the amount of government subsidy was unprecedented.

Moving forward, other government action may again support the market beyond fundamentals the private sector can provide. Certainly corporate tax cuts will likely have some impact, though a good portion of those cuts were spent by companies buying back record amounts of their own stock.

And despite the optimism of positive and regular corporate earnings, there remain clouds on the horizon. Tariffs already imposed stand to hurt the economy, particularly the farm economy, and threats of more tariffs have tempered the outlook. Some argue businesses are even holding back on their capital spending due to tariff concerns.

Higher interest rates will make borrowing more expensive. Consumers figure to be hit with higher credit card debt. And the federal deficit is project to nearly double, due to tax cuts, to $1.5 trillion.

So we can celebrate the bull market. But let’s not get carried away until it can support itself without government subsidies.

— The Free Press of Mankato