Dow drops 600 on weak jobs data as a global sell-off whips back to Wall Street
NEW YORK — Stocks tumbled Friday on worries the U.S. economy could be cracking under the weight of high interest rates meant to whip inflation.
The S&P 500 sank 1.8% for its first back-to-back losses of at least 1% since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 610 points, or 1.5%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 2.4% as a sell-off for stocks whipped all the way around the world back to Wall Street.
A report showing hiring by U.S. employers slowed last month by much more than economists expected sent fear through markets, with both stocks and bond yields dropping sharply. It followed a batch of weaker-than-expected reports on the economy from a day earlier, including a worsening for U.S. manufacturing activity, which has been one of the areas hurt most by high rates.
It was just a couple days ago that U.S. stock indexes jumped to their best day in months after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave the clearest indication yet that inflation has slowed enough for cuts to rates to begin in September.
Now, worries are rising the Fed may have kept its main interest rate at a two-decade high for too long. A rate cut would make it easier for U.S. households and companies to borrow money and boost the economy, but it could take months to a year for the full effects to filter through.
“The Fed is seizing defeat from the jaws of victory,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. “Economic momentum has slowed so much that a rate cut in September will be too little and too late. They’ll have to do something bigger than” the traditional cut of a quarter of a percentage point “to avert a recession.”
Traders are now betting on a 70% probability that the Fed will cut its main interest rate by half a percentage point in September, according to data from CME Group. That’s even though Powell said Wednesday that such a deep reduction is “not something we’re thinking about right now.”
Of course, the U.S. economy is still growing, and a recession is far from a certainty. The Fed has been clear about the tightrope it’s walking since it started hiking rates sharply in March 2022: Being too aggressive would choke the economy, but going too soft would give inflation more oxygen.
While refusing to claim victory on either the jobs or the inflation fronts on Wednesday, before the discouraging economic reports hit, Powell said Fed officials “have a lot of room to respond if we were to see weakness” in the job market after hiking its main rate so high.