MARSHALL — Southwest Minnesota Farmers hoping to get into the fields by April 1 might be disappointed, according a broadcaster who compiles weather reports for the Linder Farm Network.

Dan Lemke spoke to area farmers and others in the Agriculture business during the 19th annual Agriculture Meeting held at the Ramada Inn Jan. 7.

Lemke described himself as a “weather specialist.” The Southwest Minnesota State University graduate covers agriculture events across Minnesota and the nation for the Linder Farm Network.

” Which means I’m the lonely guy on staff who gets it wrong 100 percent of the time,” Lemke jokingly told the audience.

He spent the morning explaining the data and opinions shared by weather experts he has compiled during the past year.

“Most of them expect cooler than average conditions heading into the spring, and unfortunately, wetter than average conditions heading into the spring. They are not looking to an early warmup, but conditions can change.”

“I’m just a ray of sunshine this morning,” Lemke said.

He started his presentation summarizing last year’s rough weather conditions in the region.

“We started in February — I don’t know if you recall, we had a pretty mild January, then in February a lot of Minnesota saw the heaviest snow on record. There are record snowfall at five national weather service recording stations. Forty inches in Rochester, 39 in the Twin Cities, 27 in St. Cloud,” Lemke said.

“Then they also have a bunch of co-op stations with the snowiest February that have at least 30 years of record keeping. Forty-nine inches of snow just in February at Lake City, 49 in Owatonna, 38 almost here in Marshall, Redwood Falls 35, St. Peter at 28. Obviously the wetness started early. Unfortunately, it didn’t let up. It was a record year in precipitation across a lot of places.

Lemke said he received conflicting reports from the climatologists on Marshall. He said one Marshall set a record, the other site reported the precipitation total was just fell short.

“Even if it wasn’t a record, it was just a smidge shy of it,” he said. “You guys pretty much started wet on the get go and it just gradually got worst and separated from normal all throughout the growing season.”

Lemke showed a moisture profile across the nation conducted by NASA. While southwest Minnesota is very wet, he said “we are not alone.”

“A lot of the Dakotas are very wet, down into Nebraska, Wisconsin. Earlier in 2019 out in the Ohio Valley was very wet. They did dry out a bit. Their soil profile looks a little better than ours does,” he said.

“Part of what is shaping the pattern — this is a phenomenon we have been talking about for quite a few years — the El Nino or La Nina effect which is cool or warm phases of some specific Pacific Ocean water. Forecasters call this the most powerful influential natural climate pattern in the world. And it swings back and forth every year — about every two to seven years it alternates from an El Nino or La Nina. Right now we are in what’s called a blob. It’s not real strong one way or the other.”

Lemke said of the three possibilities, forecasters are putting this region into the neutral category.

He presented forecast information from a number of sources. One of those sources is the National Weather Service.

“They are also concerned with a spring flood risk. Not only for rivers and streams, but low lying areas, largely attributed to saturated soils, which is no surprise for a lot of you,” he said. “And their outlook continues to favor near or above normal precipitation for the winter months. A fairly weak pattern. Not strong El Nino, so there is kind of that blob. Likely get what we have been getting.”

He also mentioned Dr. Dennis Todey from the United States Department of Agriculture Midwest climate hub in Ames, Iowa.

“What they are seeing is increased chances of colder than average, later in the winter and early spring. They sees some of those cold conditions later into the spring. The average coldest temperature is late to mid-January could extend that time. There will be a slightly average chance of precipitation for much of the region heading into the spring and again, they are looking at already wet soils and spring planting delays. Dr. Todey said he’s very concern with wet soils and the likelihood of delay planting.”

Lemke also mentioned Iowa State University climatologist Dr. S. Elwynn Taylor who suggested looking at Arkansas a month before anticipating planting. Lemke said Taylor said conditions in Arkansas one month before planting in southern Minnesota “are pretty indicative of what’s going to happen here.

“If you are looking to get into the field April 1, about March 1, look to see what’s happening in Arkansas, because that’s probably a pretty good tip to what’s happening here.”

Lemke also warned not to wait too long to get into the fields.

“Take advantage of those opportunities to get out in the field when you can,” he said. “The conditions may not be ideal, but if you wait for ideal conditions, they may never come.”