Wary but ready in Granite Falls
City officials met with the NWS, Army Corps of Engineers among others, this week to start putting together a game plan to fight possible floodingBy Per Peterson
If there's one thing officials in Granite Falls know how to do, it's fight a flood.
For better or worse, they're good at it. They've learned from the floods of 1997 and 2001. They know what to do and what not to do. And they know how to brace themselves and work together.
But even with all their experience, they also know that tough times might lie ahead for Granite Falls residents thanks to a wet fall and a winter that has produced plenty of snow. With those factors in mind, Granite Falls city officials and local emergency personnel met Wednesday with representatives from the National Weather Service and the Army Corps of Engineers to discuss flooding issues - the potential for flooding in the city this spring and how it relates to the community.
"It's pretty hard not to be concerned about it," Granite Falls Mayor Dave Smiglewski said. "We know we can't prevent it, and there's not much you can do but get ready. That's kind of the mode we're in."
The meeting, which included a tour of key areas of the city - in town, and areas upstream and downstream from the Minnesota River, gave the National Weather Service an opportunity to update city officials on its latest data, including moisture content, the amount of snow on the ground and the affect the wet fall could have this spring.
"I think it helped for them to come out and see it firsthand," Smiglewski said. "You can look at maps and aerial photos, but you really can't get a feel for things - 'is this line of trees just a line of trees, or is it on a steep hill,' which changes how the river behaves. We talked about what was out there, what's at play as far as the potential for flooding and how it relates to the community."
Current data from the NWS show an 80 percent chance of flooding in Montevideo, with only a 7 percent chance in Granite Falls. The 7 percent number left Smiglewski scratching his head, and he said that number can be somewhat misleading, depending on how one defines major flooding.
"How do you define 'major?'" he said. "In my mind, major flooding is when it gets above a certain elevation. Others define it by what's being impacted. We've done a lot of flood mitigation work - we've removed houses, removed business, reconfigured downtown and all those things. There are areas that flooded before where there's nothing there now, so flood damage can't happen if nothing's there. In the public's mind, a major flood is probably determined by how high it gets and the that gets put on everyone's shoulders."
The major concern, Smiglewski said, is not necessarily what's happening in town, but what the conditions are upstream from the city where there is a significant amount of moisture compact like at the Chippewa River a tributary of the Minnesota River, which joins the river in Montevideo.
"None of the flooding is caused by the water that's right here; it's all from upstream, whether it's coming from the Chippewa or Lac qui Parle rivers. Those all have significant amounts of snow in their basin. That all runs down here. There's between four to six inches of moisture waiting to run off."
The weather during the next two-plus months will also play a major factor in just how hard the city will have to fight against the Minnesota River. City officials would rather not see heavy rain are hoping for a gradual warm-up, as opposed to seeing high temperatures go from the mid-30s to the lower 50s within a couple of days.
"It really depends on if we get rain will that mean a fast run-off?" said Smiglewski, who noted a recent Minneapolis Star and Tribune report that said there's a 50 percent chance of flood waters getting into the top five recorded elevations in Granite Falls and Montevideo. "If we have a dry spring that will help. Forty degree days, 20 degree nights, that would sure help. If it goes from 35 every day to 60 every day that will change things a lot."
There is less snow on the ground than there has been in previous flooding seasons, Smiglewski said, but concerns of another flood remain high because of all the rain that fell in October.
"We know there is less snow than there was in '97 and '01, but it's still quite troubling because everyone knows we had so much rain in October, and we know there's a lot of flow in the river. There are open areas where you can see the flow," he said.
The city of Granite Falls has scheduled a meeting for the general public where those from areas that could be affected by high water can express their concerns. No official date for that meeting has been set, but Smiglewski said it's likely to take place the second week of March.
