Back to school: The numbers game
By Cindy VotrubaLakeview Superintendent Chris Fenske said the beginning of the school year is a nervous time of the year, until the students show up.
Districts around the area are predicting stable to declining enrollment for the 2008-2009 school year. But, superintendents said, they don't know exact numbers until they see the students in the classrooms.
"You never know until the first day of school," said Tracy Superintendent David Marlette.
Bruce Lamprecht, director of business services for Marshall Public Schools, said Marshall's preliminary enrollment for the 2008-2009 school year is 2,213 students in grades K-12, which includes students at Marshall East Campus Learning Alternatives.
"That is about 15 lower than what was projected in May and June," Lamprecht said.
Lamprecht said comparing with early September enrollment numbers from last year, Marshall is anticipating about 50 fewer students.
Marlette said Tracy was looking at a negative number when projecting enrollment earlier this year.
"We had budgeted that we would lose 25 students this year," Marlette said.
Tracy had graduated a large senior class and the incoming kindergarten class wasn't as big, Marlette said.
Marlette said that in looking at initial registrations this week, Tracy gained a few students.
"We've just had a number of new students, it's exciting," Marlette said. "I think we're going to be a positive 7 (students) instead of a negative 25."
Marlette said Tracy has around 750 students in grades K-12.
Fenske said Lakeview's enrollment projections are about the same as they were at the end of this past school year.
There were 338 students in grades K-6 and 241 in grades 7-12. Fenske anticipates a loss of four students in the elementary grades and just two in the high school.
Canby's estimate for the coming school year, said Canby Superintendent Loren Hacker, is 522 students for grades K-12 at the public school and 53 at St. Peter's School.
"I expected it to be down, around 28 students," Hacker said. He said that was the enrollment numbers he gave the school board in May.
Hacker said Canby's enrollment is expected to level off.
"Looking at our preschool census, our population will level off in about two years," Hacker said.
Both Russell-Tyler-Ruthton Superintendent Bruce Houck and Minneota Superintendent Dan Deitte said their enrollment looks about stable for the coming year.
"It looks like we're down about two students," Houck said. "Usually we're right around 560."
"We wouldn't be surprised if it was about the same (as last year)," Deitte said.
Deitte said the Minneota district had around 465 students in grades K-12 last year.
"We're predicting close that that this year," Deitte said. "It's stable."
Murray County Central Superintendent Steve Jones said his district's enrollment will also be stable.
MCC ended up with 747 students in grades K-12 last year, Jones said, and that is roughly the same figure for this year.
"That's the number I showed faculty on Tuesday (Aug. 26)," Jones said. "Just staying steady is good."
